Decision Analysis 1

Faculty of Science and Technology
Department of Petroleum Engineering

Introduction

Everyone makes decisions, but few people think about how they do it. Yet, psychological research shows that we are prone to many different errors of thought that degrade our decision making ability. In this course we will discuss the principles and fundamental concepts for the normative theory of decision making under uncertainty. We will develop a language, set of theories, and tools to transform complex decisions into ones where the course of action is clear. The course follows the typical chain of considerations that attends most exploration and development projects. The skills learnt will be applicable to exploration and production decisions and from relatively small investments, such as whether or not to core a well, to major major field development or exploration program decisions.

Learning outcome

After completing this course the student should be able to:

Contents

Prerequisites

Applicants for single subjects need to meet the requirements for admission to the master programme in Petroleum Engineering.

Recomended prerequisites

Some knowledge of probability and statistics.

The grade for the course will be based on tests (50%), exercises and quizzes (30%) and class participation (20%). Class participation will be evaluated subjectively. As the instructor, I value attendance, punctuality, familiarity with the required readings, and classroom questions or comments that are relevant and insightful. Differences in technical background or skill are not a criterion. In general, I evaluate classroom participation on the basis of the extent to which you contribute to a positive and effective learning environment (for yourself and others). Demonstrating mastery of advanced topics at innappropriate times does not contribute to a positive learning environment. Correcting me when I make a mistake, however, or asking what may appear to be a naive question, quite often contribute positively. ("Dumb" questions, which rarely are that, are usually shared by many students, and asking one can keep the class on track.)

Because the course consists of continuous practical evaluation, no final exam is offered for this course. If a student fails the course or wants to improve the grade, she/he needs to take the course over again.

Only available to students in

- Bachelor studies at the Faculty of Science and Technology.

- Master studies at the Faculty of Science and Technology.

- PhD studies at the Faculty of Science and Technology.

Questionnare and continuous feedback during lectures.

Lectures and exercises.

Bratvold, R.B., S.H. Begg, and J.M. Campbell: Decision-Making under Uncertainty, SPE, 2009 + selected papers.