Centre for Innovation Research Seminar: Modelling transition - Transdisciplinary approaches for modelling the economy in a changing climate

Abstract:
Renewable energy transition involves extensive planning for new solar and wind farms across the world. In the USA, national and local projections for the Northeastern Independent System Operator New England (ISONE – a 7.5 million customers and 15 million people electricity market, serving the 16^th largest economy in the World) foresee an increase of variable renewable energy sources by 150% to 600% by 2030, and an increase of controllable renewable sources by 3% to 10%, in a fast decarbonization and slow denuclearization framework. The investments required to operationalize these changes will likely have a profound impact on the region's economy, which, in turn, will further affect the regional demand for energy products. The result of these changes to the grid will also affect the resiliency of the grid itself: distributed sources of electricity will be layered over a fast-changing climate, characterized by an increased frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as winter storms. Partnering with weather experts and power engineers, in this work we investigate two linked questions: first, using projections from the U.S. NREL and ISONE, and the quasi-CGE REMI model, we quantify the socioeconomic impacts of this journey through the transition for one of the states in the ISONE region, Connecticut. Secondly, a Sandy-like hurricane through a unit commitment and economic dispatch model capable of using weather-driven renewable energy generation time series and optimizing the schedule of controllable electric power generators while maintaining the balance between generation and demand at a minimum cost. We highlight the challenges that may arise in extreme weather conditions for 36 different installed capacity projections in 2030 associated with adverse weather conditions measured during a two-week period mirroring the impact of Hurricane Sandy in New England. Our results suggest that the path towards decarbonization can be extremely valuable from a regional economic development even for a state with limited low-cost renewable energy resources such as Connecticut, with limited impact on electricity prices. Furthermore, the energy modelling shows that renewables require one of three stabilization alternatives for delivering reliable electricity in a changing climate: extended and expanded nuclear baseload, or continuous gas-backup, or a link to an abundant renewable energy source via a NorthPass-like connector to Quebec and the Canadian Atlantic Provinces. Methodologically, this work provides an example of how to work transdisciplinary for modelling and understanding complex and transformative phenomena such the rapid decarbonization of one of the largest energy regions in the world.