Leading or Lagging? Do Public or Legacy Sectors Inspire the Twin Transition?

Abstract

The shift toward greener and more digital economies depends on how quickly new skills spread through regional labour markets. Yet it remains unclear which sectors spark these changes. Public-facing sectors such as public administration and education are often expected to lead by example, while dominant legacy industries like Norway’s oil sector may either resist or accelerate transformation. This study asks whether these sectors inspire wider adoption of green and digital skills in their regional economies. Drawing on more than two million job advertisements from 2009 to 2022, we trace how signals of green and digital skill demand diffuse across sectors and regions.

We find that education consistently inspires broader uptake of both green and digital skills, while public administration shows only weak and sporadic influence, and the oil sector largely follows its own path. Green skill demand diffuses more broadly across sectors than digital skills, suggesting that environmental transitions are more easily shared between sectors than digital ones. These findings highlight that public-facing sectors can play an important role in inspiring regional transitions, but only when their demand for new skills resonates with the wider local economy.